Tag: Uranium

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow to Fast Track Tumas PFS

The impressive results from the [Scoping] Study clearly demonstrate advancing this project to the pre-feasibility study stage is justified, appreciating that uranium prices are expected to improve strongly over the next two to three years. With this approach, the Company has a significant opportunity to continue prudently advancing the Tumas palaeochannel deposits in a cost effective and timely manner and assist in achieving our aim of establishing Deep Yellow as a tier-one uranium producer. John Borshoff, “Positive Scoping Study Delivers Pre-Feasibility Study Go-Ahead”

Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior

We observe cycle death on a regular basis. It often presages a rebirth. But precious few traders have the stomach for it. Presently, cycle death has occurred in Fission, Denison, Deep Yellow, NexGen and GoviEx. The cycle, interestingly, remains intact for Forsys Metals. We have an idea why Forsys hasn’t uncoupled from its long-standing cycle, but that’s for another day. What is cycle death? It is the point at which price becomes unhinged absolutely from previously established long-term cycle patterns. All of the above-mentioned names shared an almost identical cycle length of XX Weeks (The Basis of Our Approach: An…

Oh, Look, a Shiny New Uranium ETF, but Why Aren’t My Stocks Moving?

There are two reasons. Well, actually one, which works two ways: Operational Shorting* and Operational Buying, common activities associated with the creation/redemption process. For our purposes, we are chiefly concerned with the former: Operational Shorting. Huh? Take URNM, for example. It’s a new uranium ETF issued by Exchange Traded Concepts on the behalf of North Shore Indices. Folks will certainly line up to buy units under the innocent assumption that the securities the fund ostensibly represents will in turn be purchased, thus boosting prices, and these folks aren’t to be blamed because the basic, albeit misguided, expectation of the average…

$DYLLF : John Borshoff’s Shopping List

We think a bid of up to U.S. $55M (cash and shares) for turnkey Kayelekera is possible in an effort to begin padding out Deep Yellow’s 2023-2030 development pipeline. In other words, Borshoff certainly could strike a better deal than has already been made with Lotus — a deal with which the Malawi government would be comfortable, as the preexisting one that Paladin struck with Lotus is raw. It is our hope that Bintony Kutsaira continues to stonewall the June A$5M arrangement. Were I Borshoff, I would aggressively undercut Lotus and negotiate with Kutsaira a mine stake boost of up…

$CCJ : Cameco — Levels We’re Watching

Cameco is in a tricky position, technically speaking. Sellers are in control, albeit marginally. Without a move above 10.30 next month, the stock will end the year with a bearish bias, with a price-neutral start in 2020. Come January, we will be looking for buyers to enter at 8.16. If they get traction, we anticipate renewed selling interest at 10.53. If buyers usurp bears at 10.53, we will be looking for a fight through congestion to 11.85, a clear break through which clears a path to 14, 15.18 and higher. On the flip-side, if buyers prove too weak at the…

$GLATF : Global Atomic — Independent Economic Assessment

Long-Term Price Case $65/lb. U308 Flagship Project DASA Mineral Resources 82M lbs. (1,200 ppm) Ownership 100% Shares Outstanding 144,200,000 Market Cap $53,930,800 Average Annual Production 4,864,437 Recovery 84.3% Payable Product 69,075,000 LoM 14.2 Years True All-in Costs (TAIC) $48.54/lb. Gross Revenue $4,489,875,000 Total Operating Costs ($24.96/lb.) ($1,724,112,000) Operating Profit (EBITDA) $2,765,763,000 Niger Royalty (12%) ($331,891,560) Income Taxes (30%) ($829,728,900) Total Capital Costs ($467,100,000) Net Income $1,137,042,540 Net Profit Margin 25% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 75% MTQ Score (Higher is Better) 0.3 True Value $7.89/sh. True Value Discount (TVD) 88% Cash Flow Multiple 5x Net Annual Cash Flow (Including Avg. BST,…

Statistical Bias of Common Uranium Stocks

Benchmark World Uranium Index, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.3194) GoviEx Uranium, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.2679) Denison Mines, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.0665) Forsys Metals, 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.6338) Deep Yellow Ltd., 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.5356) Fission Uranium, 22 November 2019 = BEARISH (-0.7586) NexGen Energy, 22 November 2019 = NEUTRAL (-0.3502) Save for NexGen Energy and Deep Yellow (Sept. ’18), most of the uranium stocks under study have not enjoyed a significant statistical bull run over the last decade. We will be waiting for sustained readings above 0.5 for confirmation of statistically…

Uranium Priced in Gold

As of this writing, 1/2 g of gold will buy you 1 lb. of U308. Here’s an edifying chart, compliments of PRICEDINGOLD.COM Relative to its price in gold grams, spot U308 is revisiting decadal lows. Undercutting remains the rule of the day, due to broad adherence to the ‘Open Society’/closed economic model (latter day thalassocratic) that operates under the guise of ‘increasing proliferation resistance’ in political theater parlance, but in actuality aims chiefly to annihilate smaller producers (primary & secondary). A side effect is an abandonment of market price discipline — a sacrifice considered an acceptable cost of the non-proliferation…

$SBGL : Sibanye-Stillwater Updated High Level Analysis

5 November 2019 Updated Global Reserve Model Discounted Global Gold Reserve Value * $3,704,036,400 Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value ** $16,582,170,000 Discounted Global 4PE Reserve Value, Lonmin *** $6,798,330,000 Discounted Global Copper Resource Value **** $7,589,744,040 Discounted Global Uranium Resource Value ***** $286,861,500 Aggregate Net Global Reserve Value $34,961,141,940 Estimated Reserve Lifespan PGM 32.5 Years AU 13 Years 2020 Estimated Net Income $1,165,371,398 2020 Estimated Market Cap $11,653,713,980 2020 Projected Market Cap Growth 133% FCM Target Price $17.45/sh. Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars *Rustenburg, Kroondal, Mimosa, Rustenburg Tailings, Stillwater, East Boulder **Beatrix, Cooke, Driefontein, Kloof, WRTRP, DRDGOLD, SA ***Marikana,…

Early Q4 Updates

$IMPUY — We exited Impala Platinum Holdings at our target of $7 for a return of 150%. $FCUUF — We doubled our stake in Fission Uranium on 22 October. $AAU — We took advantage of the Ixtaca permitting suspension to aggressively purchase shares on sale at $0.50 on 30 October. $GUYFF — We took advantage of the Halloween guidance scare to double our stake in Guyana Goldfields. $TGB — We like Taseko’s pipeline, especially the Florence Copper Project. We also like the way copper is behaving generally. We started to build a stake on 12 November. On 4 December 2019,…