FCM Blog

$EGY : Vaalco Energy — The Odds

As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of $EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.

$CDE : Coeur Mining — Conditional Probabilities

This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.

SARS-Cov-2 : Why Boron?

I am going to link to a section of a paper I wrote in 2011 which was the product of a multi-month dialog with nuclear engineer James E. Phelps of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. I urge you to read it and draw your own conclusions. I cannot tell you how I personally leverage the information, but I think you will find in the paper enough clues to get you started on your own critical investigation as it relates to the current crisis. LINK: Why Boron?

If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.

Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6%. And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020 have been reached for the major indexes: https://www.fahy.co/indexes-projected-crash-levels/ Our predicted extreme…

FCM Business Update

Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…

$NIOBF : NioCorp Returns to Buy Zone

We initiated a position in NioCorp this morning. For more information, please refer to our Economic Analysis, dated 22 July 2019. Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $0.99/kg TiO2 | $46.55/kg Nb Project Elk Creek Payable Primary Product (Nb) 168,861 tonnes (168,861,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 3,410 tonnes (3,410,000 kg) Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Market Cap $95,993,277 Average Annual Production 7,220 tonnes FeNb (7,220,000 kg) Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | 40.31% TiO2 | Nb 82.36% LoM 36 Years Payable Product (NbEq) 447,052,463 kg NbEq True All-in Cost (TAIC) $24.15/kg Gross Revenue $20,810,292,140 Total…

/SI : First Major Buy Signal for Silver Triggered Since May 2019

A Major Buy Signal flashed this A.M. in Silver. It is the first such signal since May 13 of last year. If Silver overshoots and drops to $16.60, we will re-initiate longs. Meanwhile the Gold:Silver Ratio hit a 50-Year high of 95 this morning! Silver Stocks Flashing Major Buy Signals (Under -30) Symbol Reading AG -37 BCEKF -37 CDE -38 EXK -36 We are watching Fortuna and Hecla closely, but Major Buy Signals are not being flashed yet. What happens if Silver fails at $16.60? If Silver fails at $16.60, the door to $15.16 is opened.