# FCM Blog

## \$EGY : Vaalco Energy — The Odds

As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of \$EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.

## \$CDE : Coeur Mining — Conditional Probabilities

This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.

## SARS-Cov-2 : Why Boron?

I am going to link to a section of a paper I wrote in 2011 which was the product of a multi-month dialog with nuclear engineer James E. Phelps of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. I urge you to read it and draw your own conclusions. I cannot tell you how I personally leverage the information, but I think you will find in the paper enough clues to get you started on your own critical investigation as it relates to the current crisis. LINK: Why Boron?

## \$EGY \$TGA : Energy Stakes Started

Symbol Name Price Target Implied Probability EGY Vaalco Energy .88 3.49 23% TGA Transglobe Energy .40 2.43 28%

## If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.

Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6%. And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020 have been reached for the major indexes: https://www.fahy.co/indexes-projected-crash-levels/ Our predicted extreme…