FCM Blog

NuChemICF : Current Discounts

Coeur Mining is the only stock to which we would consider adding at this point in the game. And in spite of their current discounts of 92% and 67% respectively, we will not be adding to NexGen or Deep Yellow unless both experience declines of > 50%.

$DYLLF : Breakthrough Results from Nova JV Drilling

RC drilling at Barking Gecko on EPL3669 intersects zones of thick uranium mineralisation in basement targets. Results substantially upgrade the prospectivity for alaskite-type basement deposits similar to the Rössing and Husab uranium orebodies. Results indicate Barking Gecko prospect could be part of a larger mineralised system, which include basement-related deposits in the adjacent 100% owned Reptile Project, defining a distinct 18km zone of very high uranium prospectivity. Exploration results from the first seven holes of the drilling campaign at Barking Gecko reaffirm management’s positive expectation for additional discoveries on these projects. 200m wide drill spacing leaves the mineralisation intersected open…

Uranium Rally Green Light: Natanz

On November 19, 2019, in the post, Uranium Priced in Gold, I stated the following: I never put much stock in Fordow, as it had a tiny array of centrifuges. I tend to interpret elimination of waivers as a green-light to take additional enrichment capacity underground at Natanz, which enables Iran to function as a de facto black enrichment subsidiary of Russia, China and others. And one might venture to say that Iran is a chief source of EUP continually hitting spot. Now that the planet’s premier black enrichment site has been put out of commission by our ally, Israel, competitive productive enterprise…

$LRTNF — Pure Gold Exit

We enjoyed a return of 143% in Pure Gold. Our Odds Engine, however, signaled it was time to ring the register, and at a substantial premium to calculated value relative to F/D share count. FCM cash reserves now stand at 16%.

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow Limited — PFS Presumptions

Long-Term Price Case $65/lb. U308 Flagship Project Tumas Mineral Reserves 96.2 Mlbs. Shares Outstanding 244,890,000 Market Cap $44,080,200 Average Annual Production 5 Mlbs. Recovery 97% LoM 19 Years Payable Product 93,314,000 lbs. True All-in Cost (TAIC) $50.67/lb. Gross Revenue $6,065,410,000 Total Operating Costs ($2,886,000,000) Operating Profit $3,179,410,000 Income Taxes ($1,192,278,750) Total Capital Costs ($‭650,000,000‬) Net Income $1,337,131,250 Net Profit Margin 22% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 78% MTQ Score (Higher is Better) 0.3 True Value $5.46/sh. Cash Flow Multiple 11x Annual Cash Flow $70,375,329 Future Market Cap $774,128,618 Future Market Cap Growth 1,656% Target $3.16/sh. Deep Yellow Limited and NexGen Energy…

$EGY : Vaalco Energy — The Odds

As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of $EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.

$CDE : Coeur Mining — Conditional Probabilities

This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.