FCM Blog

$CDE $VNNHF $VGZ : Armageddon It — Cash is King

NuChemICF Updates, 27 February 2020 Please be aware, but not too aware, that a not-pandemic is definitely not going to happen, but is happening maybe. If not now, then soon. You should prepare a bit, but not too aggressively and don’t tell your friends and family, but tell your friends and family. Quietly, calmly. Don’t worry about masks, they won’t help much, but get some. A few. A lot. Get some. Also, stay away from people, but go about your business as usual, but definitely not as usual. And as always, please take great pains to respect the feelings of…

$AXU : Alexco Resources — The Odds

We traded out of Alexco Resources last summer when it became fully valued at U.S. $2.43. Shares now trade at a 50% discount to our estimate of True Value. We’d like to re-enter, but are the odds in our favor? Let’s find out. Price Odds of Winning Probability of Winning 2.78 1.50 67% 3.30 4.00 25% 4.13 4.00 25% 7.58 12.50 8% According to the Odds Engine, we have one price point at which our estimation of true value intersects approximately with favorable odds: $2.78. Next Steps We have determined that there is a trade with favorable odds on the…

Dow Short Update

Although we think any short on the Dow has quite a bit of room to run, we covered ours this morning at 27,100 — an 1,100 point short. Why did we cover? We want to plow that cash into an emerging opportunity with good odds (NioCorp).

Inflation-Adjusted Global Uranium Price Forecast to 2030: or, Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Reinsurance Cycle

When the World Doesn’t Work the Way You Think It Should It was wrongly assumed that the 21st century uranium market would prove oligopolistic, vertical and risk-averse while immature and horizontal with shared risk when mature. Instead, the uranium market has aged into one wherein a thin residual spot market is maintained to merely equilibrate shocks; a market characterized by a late-successional pricing scheme wherein spot transactions grow thinner and thinner, taking de facto back seats to vertical, risk-averse, long-term contracting, wherein primary shocks reside with the seller, who counter with variable producer prices. Today’s producer prices stem from oligopolistic…

Red Letter Day for FCM

For a bettor in possession of accurate probability estimates which differ from the public estimates, the more specific the bet, the higher the advantage. Bill Benter Our Odds Engine Integration Project is two-thirds complete. What was initially the sum of four discrete modules working interdependently, has been refined to two. Tying the final two modules together will be a complex undertaking, as their respective code is not interoperable without a bridge, but I sincerely believe it can be done. In the meantime, our betting algorithm is fully functional and was loosed on the market on 10 February 2020 @ ~2:28…

Bill Benter: No Guarantees

…it is difficult to know how great an edge can be achieved at a particular track until one develops a model for that track and tests it, which requires considerable effort. Should that prove successful, there is still no guarantee that the future will be as profitable as past simulations might indicate. The public may become more skillful, or the dishonesty of the races may increase, or another computer handicapper may start playing at the same time. William Benter, “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report”

How We Bet, Part V: Exits

We develop our exits with a tool called the Dutch Tree, a.k.a. The Fahy-Biederman Exit Method for Common Stocks. See here: https://www.fahy.co/fahy-biederman-exit-method-for-common-stocks/ It’s the last step of our process and perhaps the most important. Let’s briefly review how we got here with a few bullet points: Handicap Stocks = Fundamental Analysis – Bias (You’ll see plenty of examples of this throughout the blog, and what bias exists at this stage is largely exorcised by the Odds Engine.) Calculate Odds + Probabilities of Winning & Losing = Odds Engine* Place Bets = Fractional Kelly Bets (((P*W-L)/P)/8) across a host of handicapped…

$HUI : Know Your Odds

PRICE ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY DECIMAL MONEYLINE 265.22 2/9 81.82% 1.22 -450 291.26 5/6 54.55% 1.83 -120 333.40 15/7 31.82% 3.14 +214 404.85 10/1 9.09% 11.00 +1000 A few high probability 2020 targets indicated by the $HUI. Successive targets with 2/9, 5/6 and 15/7 odds of a favorable outcome suggest unhedged gold stocks have a good chance of moving appreciably higher through the end of the year. Speaking of gold stocks, in spite of its decision to hedge a bit, we doubled up on Argonaut Gold, as well as added once again to our stake in International Tower Hill. What about…