Recent Bets and a Note on Dissimulation
We bought First Majestic at US $5.63, International Tower Hill Mines at US $0.44, Sibanye-Stillwater at US $6.57. Each, oddly, sports a Discount to Expected Value of 34%.…
FCM Blog
$TSRMF : Treasury Metals — Independent Economic Analysis (UPDATED)
REVISED (AUSENCO) (20/11/23) CHANGE Long-Term Price Case $1,950/oz. Au $1,950/oz. Au $1,950/oz. Au Flagship Project Goliath Goliath Goliath Ownership 100% 100% — Mineral Resources (Measured & Indicated) 2,100,000…
Major Indexes are a Sell
The $QQQ flashed a major sell signal on 5/29/2023 and currently sports an edge of -26% and a discount of -4%. Inversely, $PSQ sports a long edge of…
Q2 Updates : $LUCRF $UNG $DXY $STTDF
I am buying diamonds, natural gas and uranium. I have been adding to Lucara on a regular basis throughout the span of their slower-than-expected underground expansion at Karowe.…
$STTDF : Standard Uranium — The Right Explorer at the Right Price
I have begun to load up on highly prospective explorer, Standard Uranium, in anticipation of winter drilling at Sun Dog and inaugural programs at Atlantic and Canary. Standard…
Profit-Taking
Major sell signals flashed in UDN, CPER, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, SLV, AGQ, and PLTM. Profits were taken. Derivative gold has a tiny bit of headroom left, while…
Current Discounts to Expected Value
HOLDING % DISCOUNT ABMBF 34% AGQ 25% BCEKF 51% CPER 14% DMIFF 28% GAU 11% GDX 21% GDXJ 24% HCHDF 56% HL 22% LUCRF 26% NEM 33% PLTM…
Current Edges
An ‘edge’ is defined as follows: A value at which the market has overpriced the odds of continued loss; where consensus estimation errors indicate betting odds are considerably…
$UDN: The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down
What is it that hath been? that that shall be: and what is it that hath been done? that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under…
Q3 Update I
We added Newmont Mining, which sports a 1% edge and a 5% yield, on 8/24. We added Lucara Diamond Corp. on 8/24 on the back of its ongoing…
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