Tag: Uranium

$DYLLF : Breakthrough Results from Nova JV Drilling

RC drilling at Barking Gecko on EPL3669 intersects zones of thick uranium mineralisation in basement targets. Results substantially upgrade the prospectivity for alaskite-type basement deposits similar to the Rössing and Husab uranium orebodies. Results indicate Barking Gecko prospect could be part of a larger mineralised system, which include basement-related deposits in the adjacent 100% owned Reptile Project, defining a distinct 18km zone of very high uranium prospectivity. Exploration results from the first seven holes of the drilling campaign at Barking Gecko reaffirm management’s positive expectation for additional discoveries on these projects. 200m wide drill spacing leaves the mineralisation intersected open…

Uranium Rally Green Light: Natanz

On November 19, 2019, in the post, Uranium Priced in Gold, I stated the following: I never put much stock in Fordow, as it had a tiny array of centrifuges. I tend to interpret elimination of waivers as a green-light to take additional enrichment capacity underground at Natanz, which enables Iran to function as a de facto black enrichment subsidiary of Russia, China and others. And one might venture to say that Iran is a chief source of EUP continually hitting spot. Now that the planet’s premier black enrichment site has been put out of commission by our ally, Israel, competitive productive enterprise…

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow Limited — PFS Presumptions

Long-Term Price Case $65/lb. U308 Flagship Project Tumas Mineral Reserves 96.2 Mlbs. Shares Outstanding 244,890,000 Market Cap $44,080,200 Average Annual Production 5 Mlbs. Recovery 97% LoM 19 Years Payable Product 93,314,000 lbs. True All-in Cost (TAIC) $50.67/lb. Gross Revenue $6,065,410,000 Total Operating Costs ($2,886,000,000) Operating Profit $3,179,410,000 Income Taxes ($1,192,278,750) Total Capital Costs ($‭650,000,000‬) Net Income $1,337,131,250 Net Profit Margin 22% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 78% MTQ Score (Higher is Better) 0.3 True Value $5.46/sh. Cash Flow Multiple 11x Annual Cash Flow $70,375,329 Future Market Cap $774,128,618 Future Market Cap Growth 1,656% Target $3.16/sh. Deep Yellow Limited and NexGen Energy…

If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.

Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6% (Now up 28% in absolute terms as of April 20, 2020). And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020…

FCM Business Update

Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…

Inflation-Adjusted Global Uranium Price Forecast to 2030: or, Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Reinsurance Cycle

When the World Doesn’t Work the Way You Think It Should It was wrongly assumed that the 21st century uranium market would prove oligopolistic, vertical and risk-averse while immature and horizontal with shared risk when mature. Instead, the uranium market has aged into one wherein a thin residual spot market is maintained to merely equilibrate shocks; a market characterized by a late-successional pricing scheme wherein spot transactions grow thinner and thinner, taking de facto back seats to vertical, risk-averse, long-term contracting, wherein primary shocks reside with the seller, who counter with variable producer prices. Today’s producer prices stem from oligopolistic…

How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?

In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What is an estimation error? An estimation error is the difference between an estimated value and the actual probabilistic value. Most estimation errors that we run into are products of handicapping. Let’s use Denison Mines as an example. We use a period of 23 Years in order to calculate Benchmark Odds against which to measure Denison’s Implied Odds. Without the Benchmarks, we would not be able to determine the presence of value. PRICE…

URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!

Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And from our post of 12 December 2019 — Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior — were you curious about our estimated time-frame for a bottom: P.S. It’s important to remember that the 900% return you expected on the stock you bought at $0.50/sh. and which has declined by 90% to $0.05/sh., now is represented by a rise to a mere $0.50/sh. There are still good trades to be had down the pike,…

Uranium: The Downside, Probabilistically Speaking

PREAMBLE First and foremost, we are traders. We play the odds. Sometimes the odds aren’t good, but even poor odds at a fair price can be profitable. And at the end of the day, that’s what matters to us: making money. But in order to do that, one must preserve one’s independence. That means being willing to hold an unpopular opinion and to not be beholden. Being beholden to peers or to the management of the companies in which one invests, unduly colors judgement to the extent that the odds are no longer perceived in the cold, calculating light in…

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow to Fast Track Tumas PFS

The impressive results from the [Scoping] Study clearly demonstrate advancing this project to the pre-feasibility study stage is justified, appreciating that uranium prices are expected to improve strongly over the next two to three years. With this approach, the Company has a significant opportunity to continue prudently advancing the Tumas palaeochannel deposits in a cost effective and timely manner and assist in achieving our aim of establishing Deep Yellow as a tier-one uranium producer. John Borshoff, “Positive Scoping Study Delivers Pre-Feasibility Study Go-Ahead”