|Present Estimated Bokan Basket Price Case||$75.85/kg.|
|Flagship Project||Bokan Mountain|
|Mineral Resources (M&I)||23,752,458 kg REOs|
|Average Annual Production||2,051,349 kg|
|Payable REOs||22,564,836 kg|
|True All-in Cost (TAIC)||$51.73/kg.|
|Total Operating Costs||($636,000,000)|
|Total Capital Costs||($221,000,000)|
|Net Profit Margin||32%|
|Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)||68%|
|Cash Flow Multiple||5x|
|Net Average Annual Cash Flow||$49,478,538|
|Future Market Cap||$247,392,688|
|Market Cap Growth||316%|
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
FCM 2020 BOKAN MOUNTAIN BASKET PRICE CASE BREAKDOWN
|Updated||Heavy Rare Earth Metals||Last 2020 Price ($/kg)||TOTAL PRODUCTION (kg)|
|17-Jan-20||Europium Oxide (Eu₂O₃)||$30.62||75,537|
|17-Jan-20||Gadolinium Oxide (Gd₂O₃)||$23.69||778,320|
|17-Jan-20||Terbium Oxide (Tb₄O₇)||$513.87||133,350|
|17 -Jan-20||Dysprosium Oxide (Dy₂O₃)||$248.57||889,121|
|17-Jan-20||Erbium Oxide (Er₂O₃)||$22.96||388,222|
|17 -Jan-20||Yttrium Oxide (Y₂O₃)||$2.92||4,782,634|
|Updated||Light Rare Earth Metals||Last 2020 Price ($/kg)|
|17 -Jan-20||Lanthanum Oxide (La₂O₃)||$1.71||2,009,622|
|17 -Jan-20||Cerium Oxide (CeO₂)||$1.68||6,096,947|
|17 -Jan-20||Praseodymium Oxide (Pr₂O₃)||$48.10||758,162|
|17 -Jan-20||Didymium Oxide (Nd₂O₃Pr₂O₃)||$40.74||2,940,686|
|17 -Jan-20||Neodymium Oxide (Nd₂O₃)||$42.42||2,940,686|
|17 -Jan-20||Samarium Oxide (Sm₂O₃)||$1.82||771,549|
It’s important to keep in mind that we performed our Ucore analysis at prevailing rare earth prices (Table), so its 100%-owned Bokan Mountain Project is viable today with an admirable 32% Net Profit Margin.
Ucore’s IBAS bid partnership with high performance alloy supplier Materion is a plus, too.
How does Ucore compare to Texas Mineral Resources?
Upon completion of a bankable feasibility study, TMRC’s stake in Round Top will be reduced by 70%. Its stake will be further reduced by an additional 10% following a one-time $3M payment by U.S. Rare Earths. We can’t justify holding shares for an extended period in a company with a future stake of but 20% in its core asset. If management is looking for an exit, we are, too.
UPDATE, 19 January 2020
Readers* were kind enough to point out that a few pieces of data in our analysis were dated, including share count, which has grown by 29% since our first analysis was completed on 30 September 2019. This has had the effect of reducing our True Value and Target by 25%.
In addition, our Lanthanum Oxide price was printed incorrectly, which has altered both our estimated prevailing basket price and Gross Revenue.
*Not all readers were kind nor gracious. You would think they had a paying subscription to the site and were owed something.