Peter Andreas Thiel
As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of $EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.
This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.
Herein you will find an Executive Summary of a paper I wrote in 2011 which was the product of a multi-month dialog with nuclear engineer James E. Phelps of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. I urge you to read it and draw your own conclusions, as I think you will discover clues with which to jump-start your own critical investigation into Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Executive Summary Immune Deficiency is Endemic in the Atomic Age Due to its electronegativity, fluorine atoms have the highest propensity of all elements to attract electrons and to react with trace minerals in…
Symbol Name Price Target Implied Probability EGY Vaalco Energy .88 3.49 23% TGA Transglobe Energy .40 2.43 28%
Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6% (Now up 28% in absolute terms as of April 20, 2020). And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020…
Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…
We initiated a position in NioCorp this morning. For more information, please refer to our Economic Analysis, dated 22 July 2019. Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $0.99/kg TiO2 | $46.55/kg Nb Project Elk Creek Payable Primary Product (Nb) 168,861 tonnes (168,861,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 3,410 tonnes (3,410,000 kg) Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Market Cap $95,993,277 Average Annual Production 7,220 tonnes FeNb (7,220,000 kg) Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | 40.31% TiO2 | Nb 82.36% LoM 36 Years Payable Product (NbEq) 447,052,463 kg NbEq True All-in Cost (TAIC) $24.15/kg Gross Revenue $20,810,292,140 Total…
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