As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of $EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.
This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.
Symbol Name Price Target Implied Probability EGY Vaalco Energy .88 3.49 23% TGA Transglobe Energy .40 2.43 28%
Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6% (Now up 28% in absolute terms as of April 20, 2020). And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020…
Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…
We initiated a position in NioCorp this morning. For more information, please refer to our Economic Analysis, dated 22 July 2019. Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $0.99/kg TiO2 | $46.55/kg Nb Project Elk Creek Payable Primary Product (Nb) 168,861 tonnes (168,861,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 3,410 tonnes (3,410,000 kg) Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Market Cap $95,993,277 Average Annual Production 7,220 tonnes FeNb (7,220,000 kg) Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | 40.31% TiO2 | Nb 82.36% LoM 36 Years Payable Product (NbEq) 447,052,463 kg NbEq True All-in Cost (TAIC) $24.15/kg Gross Revenue $20,810,292,140 Total…
A Major Buy Signal flashed this A.M. in Silver. It is the first such signal since May 13 of last year. If Silver overshoots and drops to $16.60, we will re-initiate longs. Meanwhile the Gold:Silver Ratio hit a 50-Year high of 95 this morning! Silver Stocks Flashing Major Buy Signals (Under -30) Symbol Reading AG -37 BCEKF -37 CDE -38 EXK -36 We are watching Fortuna and Hecla closely, but Major Buy Signals are not being flashed yet. What happens if Silver fails at $16.60? If Silver fails at $16.60, the door to $15.16 is opened.
NuChemICF Updates, 27 February 2020 Please be aware, but not too aware, that a not-pandemic is definitely not going to happen, but is happening maybe. If not now, then soon. You should prepare a bit, but not too aggressively and don’t tell your friends and family, but tell your friends and family. Quietly, calmly. Don’t worry about masks, they won’t help much, but get some. A few. A lot. Get some. Also, stay away from people, but go about your business as usual, but definitely not as usual. And as always, please take great pains to respect the feelings of…
Odds of recovery to $1.07 over the next 18 months stand at 8/5. In other words, Guyana Goldfields has Moneyline odds of +160, or an Implied Probability of 38% of rising 365%. On 27 February 2020, in the face of a selloff with existential underpinnings, we raised our stake in Guyana Goldfields to 3.34% of the NuChemICF. Target Odds Moneyline Probability 1.07 8/5 +160 38%
PRICE ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY DECIMAL MONEYLINE 265.22 2/9 81.82% 1.22 -450 291.26 5/6 54.55% 1.83 -120 333.40 15/7 31.82% 3.14 +214 404.85 10/1 9.09% 11.00 +1000 A few high probability 2020 targets indicated by the $HUI. Successive targets with 2/9, 5/6 and 15/7 odds of a favorable outcome suggest unhedged gold stocks have a good chance of moving appreciably higher through the end of the year. Speaking of gold stocks, in spite of its decision to hedge a bit, we doubled up on Argonaut Gold, as well as added once again to our stake in International Tower Hill. What about…
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