Coeur Mining is the only stock to which we would consider adding at this point in the game. And in spite of their current discounts of 92% and 67% respectively, we will not be adding to NexGen or Deep Yellow unless both experience declines of > 50%.
RC drilling at Barking Gecko on EPL3669 intersects zones of thick uranium mineralisation in basement targets. Results substantially upgrade the prospectivity for alaskite-type basement deposits similar to the Rössing and Husab uranium orebodies. Results indicate Barking Gecko prospect could be part of a larger mineralised system, which include basement-related deposits in the adjacent 100% owned Reptile Project, defining a distinct 18km zone of very high uranium prospectivity. Exploration results from the first seven holes of the drilling campaign at Barking Gecko reaffirm management’s positive expectation for additional discoveries on these projects. 200m wide drill spacing leaves the mineralisation intersected open…
We enjoyed a return of 143% in Pure Gold. Our Odds Engine, however, signaled it was time to ring the register, and at a substantial premium to calculated value relative to F/D share count. FCM cash reserves now stand at 16%.
As you will see below, Conditional Odds for price points R3-7 are considerably different than those for Straight Odds: When placing bets, our odds engine looks for an advantage utilizing intersections between Straight and Conditional Odds. In the case of $EGY, 2.54 is the price point that represents a value bet with goodish odds.
This is the basic formula with which our Odds Engine works through Conditional Probabilities: Given recent moves in Coeur Mining, we are now able to compute the following Conditional Probabilities for a set of price points over the next 9 months: 9 Months Level Price Conditional Probability R3 9.38 33% R4 10.84 3% R5 13.19 0% Conditional Probabilities for all portfolio constituents are calculated automatically and results are subsequently re-processed by the Odds Engine’s Dutch Tree module. In a word, a target is a dependent variable.
Symbol Name Price Target Implied Probability EGY Vaalco Energy .88 3.49 23% TGA Transglobe Energy .40 2.43 28%
Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6% (Now up 28% in absolute terms as of April 20, 2020). And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020…
Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…
We initiated a position in NioCorp this morning. For more information, please refer to our Economic Analysis, dated 22 July 2019. Long-Term Price Case $3,676/kg Sc2O3 | $0.99/kg TiO2 | $46.55/kg Nb Project Elk Creek Payable Primary Product (Nb) 168,861 tonnes (168,861,000 kg) Payable Byproduct Metal (TiO2) 418,841 tonnes (418,841,000 kg) Payable Co-Product Metal (Sc2O3) 3,410 tonnes (3,410,000 kg) Shares Outstanding 226,666,534 Market Cap $95,993,277 Average Annual Production 7,220 tonnes FeNb (7,220,000 kg) Recovery 93.14% Sc2O3 | 40.31% TiO2 | Nb 82.36% LoM 36 Years Payable Product (NbEq) 447,052,463 kg NbEq True All-in Cost (TAIC) $24.15/kg Gross Revenue $20,810,292,140 Total…
A Major Buy Signal flashed this A.M. in Silver. It is the first such signal since May 13 of last year. If Silver overshoots and drops to $16.60, we will re-initiate longs. Meanwhile the Gold:Silver Ratio hit a 50-Year high of 95 this morning! Silver Stocks Flashing Major Buy Signals (Under -30) Symbol Reading AG -37 BCEKF -37 CDE -38 EXK -36 We are watching Fortuna and Hecla closely, but Major Buy Signals are not being flashed yet. What happens if Silver fails at $16.60? If Silver fails at $16.60, the door to $15.16 is opened.
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