Paramount Gold Nevada has 12/1 odds, or an implied probability of 7.69%, of rising to $1.55 in 2020. If price remains firm through year-end, conditional odds of rising above $2.00 in 2021 increase to 11/2, which carries an implied probability of 15.38%. Conditional odds of moving lower than $1.00 in 2021 are 12/1.
For the time-being, a long trade with modest expectations held for up to 16 months has the best odds of success.
Could Paramount Gold Nevada beat the odds this year?
Sure. However, in 12 years of trading, in any one-year period, it has reached a target with 12/1 odds only once.
What would it take to beat the odds this year?
Gold would need to quickly rise above $3,000, in which case, we would target $2.80.