Coeur Mining is the only stock to which we would consider adding at this point in the game. And in spite of their current discounts of 92% and 67% respectively, we will not be adding to NexGen or Deep Yellow unless both experience declines of > 50%.
We enjoyed a return of 143% in Pure Gold. Our Odds Engine, however, signaled it was time to ring the register, and at a substantial premium to calculated value relative to F/D share count. FCM cash reserves now stand at 16%.
PRICE DECIMAL ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY MONEYLINE 95.43 1.43 70% -233 94.21 3.33 30% +233 92.23 6.67 15% +567 91.82 10.00 10% +900
Fahy Capital Management has weathered the downturn well, with a loss of a mere 2.6% (Now up 28% in absolute terms as of April 20, 2020). And because we are unwilling to buy without a true margin of safety — a function not only of the fundamentals, but more importantly, of price — odds of catastrophic loss are exceptionally low in most scenarios, including the current one. Our hedges have been productive, enabling us to build a significant cash position that we are eager to put to work: https://www.fahy.co/uranium-the-downside-probabilistically-speaking/ | https://www.fahy.co/that-time-you-shorted-the-dow/ The majority of our predicted downside targets of 1/13/2020…
Stake in Yamana Gold Inc. Raised to 2.99% (AVG PX 4.07) Stake in Victoria Gold Corp. Raised to 3.34% (AVG PX 4.54) Stake in Pure Gold Mining Raised to 2.07% (AVG PX 0.47) 2.07% stake in Americas Gold & Silver Corp. Initiated (AVG PX 2.02) Stake in Treasury Metals Liquidated Stake in International Tower Hill Liquidated Stake in NioCorp Liquidated Current NuChemICF Stats Character Producers (Gold) = 73% Producers (Silver) = 71% Developers (Uranium) = 100% Developers (Agriculture) = 100% Developers (Rare Earths) = 100% Weightings Gold Weighting = 43% Silver Weighting = 28% Uranium Weighting = 24% Agriculture Weighting…
NuChemICF Updates, 27 February 2020 Please be aware, but not too aware, that a not-pandemic is definitely not going to happen, but is happening maybe. If not now, then soon. You should prepare a bit, but not too aggressively and don’t tell your friends and family, but tell your friends and family. Quietly, calmly. Don’t worry about masks, they won’t help much, but get some. A few. A lot. Get some. Also, stay away from people, but go about your business as usual, but definitely not as usual. And as always, please take great pains to respect the feelings of…
Odds of recovery to $1.07 over the next 18 months stand at 8/5. In other words, Guyana Goldfields has Moneyline odds of +160, or an Implied Probability of 38% of rising 365%. On 27 February 2020, in the face of a selloff with existential underpinnings, we raised our stake in Guyana Goldfields to 3.34% of the NuChemICF. Target Odds Moneyline Probability 1.07 8/5 +160 38%
PRICE ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY DECIMAL MONEYLINE 265.22 2/9 81.82% 1.22 -450 291.26 5/6 54.55% 1.83 -120 333.40 15/7 31.82% 3.14 +214 404.85 10/1 9.09% 11.00 +1000 A few high probability 2020 targets indicated by the $HUI. Successive targets with 2/9, 5/6 and 15/7 odds of a favorable outcome suggest unhedged gold stocks have a good chance of moving appreciably higher through the end of the year. Speaking of gold stocks, in spite of its decision to hedge a bit, we doubled up on Argonaut Gold, as well as added once again to our stake in International Tower Hill. What about…
Gold is inversely correlated with either near zero rates, zero rates, or negative rates which makes it an ideal investment. Mark Twain coined the phrase “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”. But the thing about charts is that they don’t lie. Gold went through a long-term, multi-year basing period. Now, it has broken out and the chart looks fantastic. Also, gold is no country’s liability. For example, in the United States M2 growth is running at double digits. So when you compare the new supply of gold against the supply of money coming into the system from Central Banks, to me…
The Gold:SPX has successfully retraced 78.6% of its 2000-2011 move, and appears to be moments away from completing its post parade… Bettors, it’s almost post time! I’ve got Equinox and Victoria down for an Exacta in the first race and thoroughbred banker First Majestic to Win and quarter horse Fortuna to Place in the second, though we like to keep tabs on Endeavour, which tends to find its legs in the backstretch. I’m a sucker for long-shots so I plan to stick around late for the third race and place a big bet on colt Aurcana to Win in its…
Nothing left to load.