Time to Trade Swatch Group and Other Emerging Opportunities

With an an advantage betting edge of 3% following a drop in excess of 3σ from expected value, Swatch Group is a buy. Its current discount to expected value is 6%. We are aiming for a trade back into Swatch’s normal distribution of price.

United Foods International ($UNFI) has developed an advantage betting edge of 6% and a DEV of 16%. $UNFI has hovered >3σ from expected value for 10 consecutive days, which is longer than is typical for a stock that on balance spends a mere 3% of the time >3σ outside of its normal distribution.

Lands End ($LE) is off its best edge, but I will take advantage of any dip back out of its normal distribution, which is to say, under $7.80. It currently sports a DEV of 15%.

Western New England Bancorp ($WNEB) closed yesterday with an advantage betting edge of 3% and a DEV of 10%. I’d like to buy a hair under its last close, but $WNEB rarely spends much time >3σ from expected value, which is roughly $8.12 this AM.


Metals are still a sell and we are short silver utilizing $ZSL, which is well off its best betting edge.

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