Category: Uranium

$DYLLF : Breakthrough Results from Nova JV Drilling

RC drilling at Barking Gecko on EPL3669 intersects zones of thick uranium mineralisation in basement targets. Results substantially upgrade the prospectivity for alaskite-type basement deposits similar to the Rössing and Husab uranium orebodies. Results indicate Barking Gecko prospect could be part of a larger mineralised system, which include basement-related deposits in the adjacent 100% owned Reptile Project, defining a distinct 18km zone of very high uranium prospectivity. Exploration results from the first seven holes of the drilling campaign at Barking Gecko reaffirm management’s positive expectation for additional discoveries on these projects. 200m wide drill spacing leaves the mineralisation intersected open…

Uranium Rally Green Light: Natanz

On November 19, 2019, in the post, Uranium Priced in Gold, I stated the following: I never put much stock in Fordow, as it had a tiny array of centrifuges. I tend to interpret elimination of waivers as a green-light to take additional enrichment capacity underground at Natanz, which enables Iran to function as a de facto black enrichment subsidiary of Russia, China and others. And one might venture to say that Iran is a chief source of EUP continually hitting spot. Now that the planet’s premier black enrichment site has been put out of commission by our ally, Israel, competitive productive enterprise…

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow Limited — PFS Presumptions

Long-Term Price Case $65/lb. U308 Flagship Project Tumas Mineral Reserves 96.2 Mlbs. Shares Outstanding 244,890,000 Market Cap $44,080,200 Average Annual Production 5 Mlbs. Recovery 97% LoM 19 Years Payable Product 93,314,000 lbs. True All-in Cost (TAIC) $50.67/lb. Gross Revenue $6,065,410,000 Total Operating Costs ($2,886,000,000) Operating Profit $3,179,410,000 Income Taxes ($1,192,278,750) Total Capital Costs ($‭650,000,000‬) Net Income $1,337,131,250 Net Profit Margin 22% Absolute Cost Structure (ACS) 78% MTQ Score (Higher is Better) 0.3 True Value $5.46/sh. Cash Flow Multiple 11x Annual Cash Flow $70,375,329 Future Market Cap $774,128,618 Future Market Cap Growth 1,656% Target $3.16/sh. Deep Yellow Limited and NexGen Energy…

Inflation-Adjusted Global Uranium Price Forecast to 2030: or, Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Reinsurance Cycle

When the World Doesn’t Work the Way You Think It Should It was wrongly assumed that the 21st century uranium market would prove oligopolistic, vertical and risk-averse while immature and horizontal with shared risk when mature. Instead, the uranium market has aged into one wherein a thin residual spot market is maintained to merely equilibrate shocks; a market characterized by a late-successional pricing scheme wherein spot transactions grow thinner and thinner, taking de facto back seats to vertical, risk-averse, long-term contracting, wherein primary shocks reside with the seller, who counter with variable producer prices. Today’s producer prices stem from oligopolistic…

How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?

In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What is an estimation error? An estimation error is the difference between an estimated value and the actual probabilistic value. Most estimation errors that we run into are products of handicapping. Let’s use Denison Mines as an example. We use a period of 23 Years in order to calculate Benchmark Odds against which to measure Denison’s Implied Odds. Without the Benchmarks, we would not be able to determine the presence of value. PRICE…

URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!

Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And from our post of 12 December 2019 — Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior — were you curious about our estimated time-frame for a bottom: P.S. It’s important to remember that the 900% return you expected on the stock you bought at $0.50/sh. and which has declined by 90% to $0.05/sh., now is represented by a rise to a mere $0.50/sh. There are still good trades to be had down the pike,…

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow to Fast Track Tumas PFS

The impressive results from the [Scoping] Study clearly demonstrate advancing this project to the pre-feasibility study stage is justified, appreciating that uranium prices are expected to improve strongly over the next two to three years. With this approach, the Company has a significant opportunity to continue prudently advancing the Tumas palaeochannel deposits in a cost effective and timely manner and assist in achieving our aim of establishing Deep Yellow as a tier-one uranium producer. John Borshoff, “Positive Scoping Study Delivers Pre-Feasibility Study Go-Ahead”

Uranium Stocks: Extreme Bear Scenarios

SYMBOL S1 S2 S3 S4 DNN 0.37 0.31 0.22 .19 DYLLF 0.15 0.09 — — FCUUF 0.15 0.08 — — FOSYF 0.05 0.02 — — GVXXF 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.03 NXE 1.07 0.83 0.45 0.23 CCJ 7.71 6.40 4.25 3.35 LEVELS AT WHICH FCM WILL ADD TO LONGS SYMBOL S1 S2 S3 S4 DNN 0.37 0.31 0.22 .19 DYLLF 0.15 0.09 — — FCUUF 0.15 0.08 — — FOSYF 0.05 0.02 — — GVXXF 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.03 NXE 1.07 0.83 0.45 0.23 CCJ 7.71 6.40 4.25 3.35

There Are Ugly Charts and There’s Fission’s Chart, Which Puts the Rest to Shame

Fission Uranium, one of the doggiest of dogs, has been reduced to a whimper, rounding out the year in spectacularly bad technical shape. Two major levels of support have been violated, and a third may yet be tested. Fission will likely open 2020 with the bearish bias that marked its 2019 performance. We think a handful of gritty buyers are prepared to step in at 0.12, but sellers will fight back at 0.25. If the sellers prove weak, and if short-sellers do a bit of covering, price could rise to 0.32, a level at which larger buyers lay in wait.…

Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior

We observe cycle death on a regular basis. It often presages a rebirth. But precious few traders have the stomach for it. Presently, cycle death has occurred in Fission, Denison, Deep Yellow, NexGen and GoviEx. The cycle, interestingly, remains intact for Forsys Metals. We have an idea why Forsys hasn’t uncoupled from its long-standing cycle, but that’s for another day. What is cycle death? It is the point at which price becomes unhinged absolutely from previously established long-term cycle patterns. All of the above-mentioned names shared an almost identical cycle length of XX Weeks (The Basis of Our Approach: An…