|Long-term Price Case||$24/oz. Ag & $1,700/oz. Au|
|Mineral Resources||66,425,000 AgEq ozs.|
|Average Annual Production||4,919,765 AgEq ozs.|
|Payable Product||39,358,121 AgEq ozs.|
|True All-in Cost (TAIC)||$17.59/oz.|
|Total Charges||($28,337,847 )|
|Total Operating Costs||($279,674,860)|
|Total Capital Costs||($155,479,000)|
|Net Profit Margin||27%|
|Absolute Cost Structure (ACS)||73%|
|MTQ Score (Higher is Better)||0.4|
|True Value Discount (TVD)||96%|
|Cash Flow Multiple||5x|
|Net Annual Cash Flow||$31,535,694|
|Future Market Cap||$157,678,470|
|Future Market Cap Growth||4,280%|
Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars
According to our calculations, the AbraPlata story gets interesting above $17/oz. Ag. If Aethon has a breakthrough and is able to demonstrate that recoveries above 80% may be achieved, the AbraPlata story could get interesting below $17/oz. It’s a wait-see.
The Net Profit Margin and Absolute Cost Structure are middling, so we have assigned AbraPlata a 5x Cash Flow Multiple and Future Market Cap Growth up to 4,280%.
Merger Update: 30 July 2019 — Jane pays John to take her to prom…
On a fully-diluted in-the-money basis, AbraPlata shareholders will own ~48% of Diablillos following a business combination with Aethon.
As our assumptions were within a +/- 5% margin of error (+4%) regarding future ownership, our existing valuation dated 20 June 2019 remains valid, for all intents and purposes.