Example: Coeur Mining
Step 1: Define Stake: $1.00
Step 4: Define Decimal Odds of Winning: 1 + Odds of Winning
101 Wins out of 108 Total Trades, or 7/101 (.069) = 1.07 (1 + Odds of Winning)Step 4: Define Decimal Odds of Losing: 1 + Odds of Losing
7 Losses out of 108 Total Trades, or 101/7 (14.43) = 15.43 (1 + Odds of Losing)Step 2: Calculate Probability of Winning: 1 / Decimal Odds of Winning
1 / 1.07 = .93 (Probability of Winning)Step 3: Calculate Probability of Losing: 1 / Decimal Odds of Losing
1/15.43 = .06 (Probability of Losing)Step 5: Define Payout: Stake * Decimal Odds of Winning
$1 * 1.07 = $1.07Step 6: Calculate Full Kelly Criterion: (((Payout * Probability of Winning) – Probability of Losing) / Payout) * 100
(((((1.07 * .93) - .06) / 1.07)) * 100) = 87%Step 7: Calculate 8th Kelly Criterion: Full Kelly Criterion / 8;
.87/8 = .11 (11%)Conclusion
One is directed to stake 11% of one’s account on Coeur Mining in an 8th Kelly Bet or 87% in a Full Kelly Bet.
Notes
Whether or not a bet is taken is determined by our Value Betting Engine.
