| SYMBOL | PRICE | UK ODDS | IMPLIED PROBABILITY | MONEYLINE | CURRENT DISCOUNT | EXIT DATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVPAF | 9.23 | 5/3 | 38% | +167 | 36% | |
| 2/1/21 | ||||||
| AGI | 16.39 | 7/3 | 30% | +233 | 41% | |
| ARNGF | 4.10 | 7/4 | 36% | +175 | 45% | |
| AUY | 10.15 | 11/6 | 35% | +183 | 40% | |
| BCEKF | 4.82 | 5/2 | 29% | +250 | 49% | |
| CDE | 19.11 | 25/6 | 19% | +417 | 43% | |
| DYLLF | 0.73 | 18/7 | 28% | +257 | 84% | |
| EQX | 18.71 | 3/2 | 40% | +150 | 41% | |
| EXN | 6.35 | 6/1 | 14% | +600 | 50% | |
| FSM | 14.65 | 2/1 | 33% | +200 | 37% | |
| GOLD | 40.00 | 13/5 | 28% | +260 | 44% | |
| GAU | 2.58 | 10/3 | 23% | +333 | 51% | |
| HL | 11.48 | 10/3 | 23% | +333 | 49% | |
| HMY | 10.10 | 19/4 | 17% | +475 | 57% | |
| IAG | 7.30 | 5/1 | 17% | +500 | 46% | |
| MGDPF | 4.07 | 1/2 | 67% | -200 | 44% | |
| PZG | 2.11 | 10/3 | 23% | +333 | 41% | |
| USAS | 5.92 | 1/1 | 50% | +100 | 43% | |
| VITFF | 21.81 | 7/6 | 46% | +117 | 54% |
BOOK: NuChemICF (2021)
RACE: 5
Your own estimation errors have convinced you that your betting odds are considerably better than they actually are.
How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?
In any given year, as it is understood by our Odds Engine, a single stock runs 8 theoretical races. Our selection of ‘Race 5’ stems from conditional probabilities tied to last year’s price performance.
2 Comments
Hi Tom,
I see Hycroft is no longer included in your fund. Why? Better opportunities elsewhere ?
Hi, Gary,
I shifted the stake to Alamos Gold.
-Tom