How We Bet, Part IV: Is the Odds Engine a Cure for Common Estimation Errors?
In our experience, yes: It protects us from asymmetric skewing. It is of a union between projections of future value and bias that asymmetric skewing is born. What…
Category: Business
How We Bet — Part III: The Value Bet Demystified
In Parts I and II, we covered our internal approach to Value Betting stocks, but perhaps an understanding of ‘Value’ as it pertains to stock betting still eludes…
How We Bet — Part II: Coeur Mining Case Study
When betting, we look for an intersection between value and good odds. Value, you will recall from Part I, is determined by identifying a clear discrepancy between benchmark…
How We Bet — Part I
We do a lot of handicapping, but we acknowledge that won’t make us better traders. The value of handicapping ends with stock picking. Once stocks are picked and…
URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!
Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And…
$CDE: Coeur Mining 2020 Betting Odds
“Your opportunity for profit at the racetrack consists entirely of mistakes that your competition makes in assessing each horse’s probability of winning.” -Steven Crist
$POTRF: SOPerior Fertilizer Corp. — 2020 Tote Board
“It is wise not to treat something that is very very unlikely as if it were impossible.” -Nigel Turner This is a live example of the current tote…
Ucore Rare Metals: 2020 Tote Board
Target Implied Probability Odds Moneyline Payout ($100 Bet) .21 75.2% 1:3 -303 $133 .26 50% 1:1 +100 $200 .34 25% 3:1 +300 $400 .63 16.7% 5:1 +500 $600…
Uranium: The Downside, Probabilistically Speaking
PREAMBLE First and foremost, we are traders. We play the odds. Sometimes the odds aren’t good, but even poor odds at a fair price can be profitable. And…
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