$CDE $VNNHF $VGZ : Armageddon It — Cash is King
NuChemICF Updates, 27 February 2020 Please be aware, but not too aware, that a not-pandemic is definitely not going to happen, but is happening maybe. If not now,…
FCM Blog
$GUYFF : Guyana Goldfields — Raising Stake in Marginal Producer with Fair Odds of Recovery
Odds of recovery to $1.07 over the next 18 months stand at 8/5. In other words, Guyana Goldfields has Moneyline odds of +160, or an Implied Probability of…
$AXU : Alexco Resources — The Odds
We traded out of Alexco Resources last summer when it became fully valued at U.S. $2.43. Shares now trade at a 50% discount to our estimate of True…
Dow Short Update
Although we think any short on the Dow has quite a bit of room to run, we covered ours this morning at 27,100 — an 1,100 point short.…
Gold : Silver Ratio = 89
A return to early 90s highs has prompted Fahy Capital Management to grow its stakes in Coeur, First Majestic and Bear Creek. Updated weightings may be viewed on…
Inflation-Adjusted Global Uranium Price Forecast to 2030: or, Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Reinsurance Cycle
When the World Doesn’t Work the Way You Think It Should It was wrongly assumed that the 21st century uranium market would prove oligopolistic, vertical and risk-averse while…
Red Letter Day for FCM
For a bettor in possession of accurate probability estimates which differ from the public estimates, the more specific the bet, the higher the advantage. Bill Benter Our Odds…
Bill Benter: No Guarantees
…it is difficult to know how great an edge can be achieved at a particular track until one develops a model for that track and tests it, which…
How We Bet, Part V: Exits
We design our exits with a tool called the Dutch Tree, a.k.a. The Fahy-Biederman Exit Method for Common Stocks. See here: https://www.fahy.co/fahy-biederman-exit-method-for-common-stocks/ It’s the next-to-last step of our…
$HUI : Know Your Odds
PRICE ODDS IMPLIED PROBABILITY DECIMAL MONEYLINE 265.22 2/9 81.82% 1.22 -450 291.26 5/6 54.55% 1.83 -120 333.40 15/7 31.82% 3.14 +214 404.85 10/1 9.09% 11.00 +1000 A few…
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