Author: Tom Fahy

How We Bet — Part I

We do a lot of handicapping, but we acknowledge that won’t make us better traders. The value of handicapping ends with stock picking. Once stocks are picked and opinions are formed, one must gauge whether or not one should place an actual bet. We are primarily value bettors. This is not to suggest we only place value bets. Rather, the better part of investment capital is allocated to those issues where a clear discrepancy between benchmark and implied probability is evident, while the remainder is allocated to long shots. In our portfolio, the ratio of value bets to long-shots is…

URANIUM: Now the Real Carnage Can Begin!

Now that the majority of our initial Odds Engine downside targets have been reached (see here and here and here and here), the real carnage can begin: And from our post of 12 December 2019 — Cycle Death and the Uranium Junior — were you curious about our estimated time-frame for a bottom: P.S. It’s important to remember that the 900% return you expected on the stock you bought at $0.50/sh. and which has declined by 90% to $0.05/sh., now is represented by a rise to a mere $0.50/sh. There are still good trades to be had down the pike,…

Ucore Rare Metals: 2020 Tote Board

Target Implied Probability Odds Moneyline Payout ($100 Bet) .21 75.2% 1:3 -303 $133 .26 50% 1:1 +100 $200 .34 25% 3:1 +300 $400 .63 16.7% 5:1 +500 $600 .12 41.7% 7:5 +140 $240 .07 33.3% 2:1 +200 $300 Notes: All Values in U.S. Dollars Moneyline bets for OTC stocks? Well, maybe not in the wild. But we place them internally for fun.

Uranium: The Downside, Probabilistically Speaking

PREAMBLE First and foremost, we are traders. We play the odds. Sometimes the odds aren’t good, but even poor odds at a fair price can be profitable. And at the end of the day, that’s what matters to us: making money. But in order to do that, one must preserve one’s independence. That means being willing to hold an unpopular opinion and to not be beholden. Being beholden to peers or to the management of the companies in which one invests, unduly colors judgement to the extent that the odds are no longer perceived in the cold, calculating light in…

$DYLLF : Deep Yellow to Fast Track Tumas PFS

The impressive results from the [Scoping] Study clearly demonstrate advancing this project to the pre-feasibility study stage is justified, appreciating that uranium prices are expected to improve strongly over the next two to three years. With this approach, the Company has a significant opportunity to continue prudently advancing the Tumas palaeochannel deposits in a cost effective and timely manner and assist in achieving our aim of establishing Deep Yellow as a tier-one uranium producer. John Borshoff, “Positive Scoping Study Delivers Pre-Feasibility Study Go-Ahead”

內業 : The Way, Way Back, 350–300 BCE

The concept of “philosophical Taoism” is, to a large extent, a modern fiction, which has been developed and embraced by people around the world for specific and identifiable social, intellectual, and historical reasons. Russell Kirkland, “Varieties of Taoism in Ancient China“ Neiye Translated by Bruce R. Linnell Always : the essence of creatures – This then makes them live. Below, it gives birth to the five grains; Above, it acts to arrange the stars. When it flows in the space between heaven and earth We call them ghosts and spirits. When it collects in the center of the breast of…

Rosenberg on Gold

Gold is inversely correlated with either near zero rates, zero rates, or negative rates which makes it an ideal investment. Mark Twain coined the phrase “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”. But the thing about charts is that they don’t lie. Gold went through a long-term, multi-year basing period. Now, it has broken out and the chart looks fantastic. Also, gold is no country’s liability. For example, in the United States M2 growth is running at double digits. So when you compare the new supply of gold against the supply of money coming into the system from Central Banks, to me…