Advantage Play: Ten Principles

Expectancy Governs.
Allocation is justified by probabilistic asymmetry, not by narrative conviction or recent outcome.

Survival Precedes Compounding.
Geometric growth requires capital persistence under adverse realization.

Variance Dominates Short Horizons.
Divergence between expectation and result is structural, not exceptional.

Size Determines Fate.
Fractional allocation protects against model error and distribution expansion.

Correlation Aggregates Risk.
Apparent diversification does not guarantee independent realization.

Inactivity Is a Position.
Participation is conditional; abstention preserves optionality.

Regimes Drift.
Assumptions require review when structural conditions evolve beyond tolerance.

Outcome Does Not Define Identity.
Discipline is measured by adherence to process, not by immediate reinforcement.

Sequence Exceeds Trial.
No single allocation validates or invalidates advantage.

Uncalibrated Exposure Converts Edge into Fragility.
Proportionality is the governing constraint of survival and endurance.