In what remains of 2020, copper has 8/9 odds (implied probability of 53%) of reaching $3.05/lb; 9/4 odds (implied probability of 31%) of reaching $3.27/lb; 11/2 odds (implied probability of 15%) of reaching $3.37/lb. Next year is a different ball game, however: On the back of this year’s performance, preliminary conditional odds indicate a year marked by better-than-average gains. Consequently, we plan to hold both Ivanhoe Mines and Hudbay Minerals for up to an additional 16 months.
Mean reversion is critical to the value premise if indeed the walk is random. If the walk is not random and the path is deterministic nonlinear, then the observed periodicity of the value premise betrays a succession of function iterations along a transitive trajectory forming orbits that describe cyclical human behavior in its relentless pursuit of value premise periodic and fixed points. This post is a load of horseshit. I think.