Hurst-Hull Value Betting Project — How We Take Value Betting to the Next Level

The Hurst-Hull Value Betting Project has been under development for 24 months. It was initiated in an effort to improve the timing of entries and exits in precious and base metals stocks and derivatives thereof. It will also, once beta testing is concluded, serve as a successor to our Grasberg-Saville Gold Rating.

44 years of gold price data and 49 years of silver price data underpin the Project’s foundation: cyclic analysis, the godfather of which was J.M. Hurst. Hurst’s insights have been invaluable to us as traders, and although those insights are serviceable in their own right, we knew we could incorporate signal processing to improve cyclic analytic results.

Incorporating Alan Hull-inspired signal processing filters has enabled us to identify and eliminate noise without adversely impacting overall signal integrity. And whereas re-engineering Hurst’s esoteric cyclic analytic formulas into a language with which we could work with ease was not intuitive, the incorporation of Hull’s formulas was a decidedly simpler endeavor.

The forthcoming public-facing portion of the Project will be in the form of Signal Strength Ratings, presented as percentages, where ratings > 75% indicate a period during which it may be advantageous to consider trades in the direction of the presiding cycle.

Value Betting signals — both entries and exits — are typically fleeting, rarely lasting longer than a couple of weeks, so one must be willing to act quickly.

Hurst-Hull does not supplant our Odds Engine (See our How We Bet Series), but rather complements it.